Philippines Gaming Sector Braces for Revenue Dip Tied to Global Tensions
Alejandro Tengco, chairman and CEO of the Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corporation, outlined a forecast showing the country's gross gaming revenue could fall by as much as 19 percent in 2026, landing between Php320 billion and Php350 billion, or roughly US$5.20 billion to US$5.69 billion, after the record Php396.1 billion achieved in 2025.
Key Figures Behind the Projection
The numbers reflect a shift from the previous year's peak, which came after sustained growth in both land-based and online segments, while Tengco tied the expected contraction directly to pressures from the ongoing Middle East conflict and its ripple effects on household spending power, especially among lower-income groups that drive much of the domestic gambling activity.
Data from the first quarter of 2026 already showed online gambling revenue dropping 22.4 percent following earlier regulatory moves such as the de-linking of e-wallets, and observers note those same factors may compound with new external cost pressures throughout the rest of the year.
External Pressures and Sector Response
Tengco highlighted how rising living costs linked to the regional conflict have begun to squeeze discretionary spending, and the online sector appears particularly exposed because many players in that channel come from income brackets most sensitive to price changes in fuel, food, and other essentials. PAGCOR has continued monitoring these trends through its regular reporting channels, and the chair's comments came during a June 2025 briefing that focused on both risks and offsetting positives.
One area of potential support lies in tourism recovery, where arrivals from China have shown steady increases in recent months, and industry participants expect higher visitor numbers to bolster foot traffic at integrated resorts even if local participation softens. This dynamic creates a mixed outlook in which inbound spending could partially cushion declines in the domestic market.
Regulatory Context and Market Adjustments
Earlier policy changes around payment channels already reshaped the online landscape before the latest geopolitical concerns surfaced, and Tengco's statement positions the 2026 forecast as a continuation of those adjustments rather than an entirely new shock. Operators have responded by refining marketing approaches and exploring new player segments, while regulators maintain oversight to ensure compliance amid shifting revenue patterns.
Figures released alongside the forecast also underscore that the 2025 total stood as the highest on record, driven by a combination of post-pandemic recovery and expanded digital offerings, yet the projected range for 2026 signals a clear departure from that upward trajectory if current cost pressures persist.
Balancing Risks with Tourism Gains
Although the primary concern centers on reduced consumer spending, Tengco pointed to improving tourism indicators as a counterbalance that could limit the overall decline, and rising Chinese visitor arrivals in particular have drawn attention from resort operators seeking to attract higher-value international play. This element of the outlook suggests the impact may vary across different parts of the industry rather than affecting every segment equally.
Stakeholders across the sector continue to track monthly performance data to refine expectations, and the chair's comments serve as an early signal for planning purposes ahead of the full-year results. PAGCOR’s 2025 GGR figures and 2026 forecast statements remain the central reference point for these discussions.
Conclusion
The statement from PAGCOR leadership frames a period of adjustment for the Philippine gaming market, where external geopolitical factors intersect with prior regulatory shifts to shape the near-term revenue path. Tourism improvements offer one avenue for mitigation, while the online segment faces ongoing headwinds from both cost pressures and earlier policy changes, and industry participants will watch subsequent quarterly reports for confirmation of the projected range.